The Strait of Hormuz as a Strategic Choke Point: An Analysis of the Risks of Global Energy Supply Disruption and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability

Abstract

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint that plays a vital role in maintaining the sustainability of global energy distribution and international economic stability. This research focuses on the dynamics of the risk of energy supply disruption due to the escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Persian Gulf region and its implications for the global macroeconomic system. Sub-focuses include the role of sea power, naval diplomacy, energy supply chain disruptions, and the transmission of global economic pressures. The research aims to analyze the characteristics of the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic chokepoint and explain the non-linear interaction between maritime conflict and economic stability. The research approach uses system dynamics through dynamic thinking with explanatory qualitative methods. Data were obtained through strategic literature studies, reports from international energy agencies, and causal relationship analysis. The findings indicate that disruption of energy routes produces systemic effects through feedback mechanisms and delay effects, impacting energy price volatility, global inflation, and economic instability. Sea power and naval diplomacy serve as stabilization instruments in maintaining the security of global energy routes